Risk potential of the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant, Ukraine

The Ukrainian nuclear power plant Zaporizhzhya, now occupied by Russia, has repeatedly been the starting point of security debates due to the large-scale invasion of Russian troops in February 2022, which confirmed the danger of a possible explosion, but in its scale was not comparable, for example, with the Chernobyl nuclear disaster.

In recent days, the situation at the nuclear plant has been fueled by new rumors that Russian troops were mounting explosive devices at the plant. Officially, however, these rumors could not be confirmed. However, a possible blast is technically difficult to carry out, as the reactor units are fortunately equipped with several thick, fortified walls for protection. Likewise, the nuclear power plant has been shut down in the meantime, which would greatly reduce radiation exposure in the event of a potential attack, such as an explosion, and would probably be regionally limited. However, a risk remains.

At the same time, the ICRC assesses the risk of a radiation leak as high despite safety precautions. It arrives at this assessment because the likelihood of direct or accidental damage to a reactor or other critical components that enable safe operation of the facility, as well as human error by personnel working under increasing stress and strain, would remain.

At the same time, the ICRC estimates that the risk of radiation leakage is high despite safety precautions. It arrives at this assessment because the likelihood of direct or accidental damage to a reactor or other critical components that enable the safe operation of the facility, as well as human error by personnel working under increasing stress and strain, would still exist.

In the event of potential damage to the facility, the surrounding region could be impacted for centuries by radioactive cesium or strontium contaminating the environment. This is because the released material would have an impact on ecosystems, agriculture, food security, and human health, including for generations to come.

Although opinions on the risk of damage may diverge, it can be stated that the danger or possibility of real damage exists.